Agreed ! NFLX also displayed a shooting star top .. after a long run up, the stock spiked to new highs only to close near the low of the day. It has since faltered since then. My view is NFLX goes lower from here.

Nicely done!  Great post!  

Where would you recomend a SHORT?

Where in the world did you get the software that allows you to blow up and focus in on a segment of the chart?  I wanna be Kate Stalter too.

I would agree NFLX's run is over for now.  Climax top like action.

I agree with most of the analysis, but because I don't really have the stomach for shorting I would be more inclined to buy some Puts. I would wait to see if the stock tests the 120 range. If the volume and RS are lagging then I would buy the puts. Right now you can definitely see that there are more distribution than accumulation days. I also would not short while the moving averages are still climbing. Bulls don't give up too easily.

Take a look at the New York Times comment from 8.8.10 in the Everybody's Business column. Further catalyst for move extension.

Does anyone know if you start counting bases in a bear market ?

All bases are reset in a bear market.

I thought this was an exhaustion move also and sold my stock.  But it did not act like an exhaustion afterward.  While watching the new double bottom base form it struck me that this was more like RCA back in 1928.   Although NFLX did not have a base reset that I could tell, it did form a double bottom that pierced the 10 week line.  With that shakeout it looked a lot like RCA in the June/Sep 1928 dbl bottom.  RCA broke out easily doubled.  RCA brought entertainment into the home and so does NFLX.  Both were leaders.  I hope history repeats.

There's nothing wrong with NFLX.  It has higher to go (as does the market) and really has had only 1 base since the bull market started (April-Oct '09).  The last base was not a "Double Bottom" as IBD stated.  If so, where are the accumulation weeks within the base?  There's not one single accumulation week in the so-called base.  The pause from 6/14 to 8/9 is just noise on the chart and not a base.  The charts also is not a climax run.

If it doubles again there will definately be a climax run, evil grin!

Right side accumulation days (The most recent dbl bottom formed from 6/14 to the proper breakout on 8/10)

7/30

8/3

8/5

8/6 - 50dma break, buyable here

8/10 - Breakout

Arguing the "properness" of this base is debating the shade of blue the sky is.  NFLX is a BIG TIME market leading stock and is poised to break into new high ground soon.  Get on board or be left behind.

That 4th base proved to be a shakeout as it gave up 10 points and then rallied 50 points. I agree with erikgry. and Chris.maye.

I do not own the stock, bought FFIV instead. Enjoyed the analysis from all.

rdf.

On Sep 20 at 25 days till expiry It looked like the low volume selloff was exhausted.  Entered the oct 145-155-165 buttterfly 45 minutes after the open when NFLX was at $143.  The rally provided the "gift" of a 47% profit in 4 days.  Had to take the profit and close the trade.  With 18 days remaining a 140/145 185/190 condor has a credit of approx $1.42.  The 140/160 165/185 iron butterfly carries a credit of $11 credit.  The implied volatility is 54% on the ATM oct call.  Although vols are increasing they eventually have to come out with a butterfly providing the profits.  There is a lot of premium left to possibly make 20%+ return over the next 10 days on a delta neutral trade.  Extra call and put insurance is a necessity in this market.

I also enjoy and learned a lot from the analysis from all.

One does not count bases for the bases count on monthly charts. As someelse said, the bear market washed out all the previous bases. NFLX is now extended from base 2 given the various base on base patterns I see. It most recently broke out from a high handle on a W base-not perfect but where do you find perfect in a market like we've had for 3 years-consolidated with a pullback to within 1.5% of the pivot of the high handle and now has pulled back once again giving us another potential entry. Waiting for support. Some of you need to go to WON chart school!!  ss

I'M NOT SO SURE NETFLIX IS SHOWING WEAKNESS. Just about everything is slowed before the election. Have you looked at the volume of the up vs down days recently? In the last three weeks, only five days had volume above average - and the top four had SPECTACULAR VOLUME on UP days (well OK, one more down day Friday on just slightly above average volume.

Also, only three serious Distribution days in the last 20 trading days (serious to me means a drop of 1% or more on increased volume).  I wait to see if I sell now.

Anyone even considering starting a position so late into NFLX's run?  Today's bounce of $29+ on above average volume was amazing!  I have had to accept it is getting too long in the teeth to touch, but if this could correct and reset its base count, I might hop on depending on the fundamentals and news at the time. Just a thought. BRAD