Hey Larry, I'm going to dig into this over the weekend and provide my $0.02 once I have a better understanding and think over the results of the data I pull.

Thanks for the work and original thought.

Lon

Larry/Lon,

This is something that I've been attempting to pay more attention to over the past few months. Namely, I've attempted to apply this to individual stocks.

Holding a position as it begins to navigate a follow on base, is touchy to  say the least. While we have this theory(proof)  that the stock typically runs 20-20% before it begins to cut the next base, some go for a longer run, others a bit shorter. In hating to miss the advancement if it goes 40% or better, I've attempted to figure how I can know when it's going to hit.

So, I've posed  to myself, what "tell" signal can I pick up on to indicate the next base is ready to form. What my observations are thus far is as follows:

1. When the position begins to get 20% out of the base, to watch with increased awareness.

2. At some point, the NH will not have the daily volume exceed the average. (tell #1)

3. Shortly after #2, the close for the day is somewhere in the lower 1/2 of the bar. (between 1/2 way or lower) That seems to be when the buzzer goes off, and the stock communicates: It's time for the next base ! In most cases, it does.

So, while the exit is not at the NH, it's slightly below that.

I write here this observation because it seems to match what you're indicating for the general indicators with respect to stalling.

Thoughts ?

-Enjoy,

Tom

My understanding of a churning day from Morales/Kachner is that there has to be unusually high volume, and a fairly wide trading range.  I am surprised to see so many days that were not higher volume than the day before in the list, and do not understand why the day with under 50 dma average is in the list.  I don't have the green cover book.  Is it an older version, or the newest?  Are these WON's notes or yours?  If WON's, then maybe he and Morales/Kachner are diverging on their definitions.  As I see it, 2 of the 3 stall days you have marked on the chart would not be stall days, due to lack of unusual volume, and a couple have questionable trading ranges.

ejeter: The data above are from WON's latest HTMMIS (green cover...yes..latest).  They were defined as stall days on those pages noted by WON and I have cataloqued their price and volume action here.

Lon/Tom : Last night I reviewed where the stall days as shown above where in the daily price range.  Only one of the 7 stall days was not in the lower half of the days trading range (DJI 7/1900 #2).  I also analyzed two more market tops last night and identified two stall days and added those to the database...yes..they both closed in the lower half of the range.

Therefore, I would propose we consider including that criteria into the stall definition.

So, new proposed stall day definition :

0.0-0.5% price increase with volume above the 50 DMA volume line and closes in the bottom half the day's trading range during a market uptrend.

Here is the new dataset with Stall Day dates:

Number Index Date Stall Day Day Low Day High Day Close Prior Close Price Chg% Range % Vol > 50 DMA Vol RS Line Trend Down

1 DJI Jan-84 1/12/1984 1271.78 1287.9 1279.31 1277.32 0.16% 46.7% Y Y

2 DJI Sep-87 8/21/1987 2689.09 2735.49 2709.51 2706.79 0.10% 44.0% Y N

3 DJI Jul-90 7/13/1990 2956.58 3012.38 2980.2 2969.8 0.35% 42.3% Y N

4 DJI Jul-90 7/17/1990 2970.05 3024.26 2999.75 2999.75 0.00% 54.8% Y N

5 Nasdaq Mar-00 3/10/2000 5039.35 5132.52 5048.62 5046.86 0.03% 9.9% Y N

6 Nasdaq Mar-00 3/24/2000 4902.83 5078.86 4963.03 4940.61 0.45% 34.2% N Y

7 Nasdaq Sep-00 9/14/2000 3897.18 3984.33 3913.86 3893.89 0.51% 19.1% Y Y

8 Nasdaq Mar-06 3/30/2006 2330.84 2353.14 2340.82 2337.78 0.13% 44.8% Y N

9 Nasdaq Jun-08 5/14/2008 2493.58 2528.4 2496.7 2495.12 0.06% 9.0% Y N

Guys...if you copy and paste the above data set into Excel, you should be able to read it a bit better.

Per a prior discussion of the stall days on another post, here is the updated data set that confirms the validity of the stall day definition :

0.0-0.5% price increase with volume above the 50 DMA volume line and closes in the bottom half of the day's trading range during a market uptrend.

Number Index Date Stall Day Day Low Day High Day Close Prior Close Price Chg% Range % Vol > Prior Day Vol > 50 DMA Vol

1 DJI Jan-84 1/12/1984 1271.78 1287.9 1279.31 1277.32 0.16% 46.7% Y Y

2 DJI Sep-87 8/21/1987 2689.09 2735.49 2709.51 2706.79 0.10% 44.0% N Y

3 DJI Jul-90 7/13/1990 2956.58 3012.38 2980.2 2969.8 0.35% 42.3% Y Y

4 DJI Jul-90 7/17/1990 2970.05 3024.26 2999.75 2999.75 0.00% 54.8% Y Y

5 Nasdaq Jul-98 7/9/1998 1931.99 1951.06 1939.82 1935.39 0.23% 41.1% Y Y

6 Nasdaq Jul-98 7/14/1998 1963.62 1979.64 1968.41 1965.63 0.14% 29.9% Y Y

7 Nasdaq Mar-00 3/10/2000 5039.35 5132.52 5048.62 5046.86 0.03% 9.9% N Y

8 SP500 Mar-00 3/17/2000 1453.20 1476.64 1464.47 1458.47 0.41% 48.1% N Y

9 Nasdaq Mar-00 3/24/2000 4902.83 5078.86 4963.03 4940.61 0.45% 34.2% N N

10 Nasdaq Sep-00 9/14/2000 3897.18 3984.33 3913.86 3893.89 0.51% 19.1% Y Y

11 SP500 Sep-00 8/2/2000 1433.54 1451.58 1438.7 1438.1 0.04% 28.6% Y Y

12 Nasdaq Jan-04 1/23/2004 2108.45 2138.41 2123.87 2119.01 0.23% 51.5% N Y

13 Nasdaq Mar-06 3/30/2006 2330.84 2353.14 2340.82 2337.78 0.13% 44.8% N Y

14 Nasdaq Jun-08 5/14/2008 2493.58 2528.4 2496.7 2495.12 0.06% 9.0% Y Y

15 Nasdaq Mar-11 2/28/2011 2767.61 2798.43 2782.27 2781.05 0.04% 47.6% Y Y

16 Nasdaq Apr-11 4/1/2011 2779.71 2802.63 2789.6 2781.07 0.31% 43.2% Y Y

17 Nasdaq Apr-11 4/6/2011 2796.80 2815.55 2799.82 2791.19 0.31% 16.1% Y Y

18 Nasdaq May-11 5/6/2011 2818.65 2859.25 2827.56 2814.72 0.46% 21.9% N Y

19 Nasdaq Jul-11 7/28/2011 2757.85 2800.11 2766.25 2764.79 0.05% 19.9% N Y

A majority of the time the stall day price falls in the lower half of the range (only 2 exceptions) and the vol was > 50 DMA vol (Only 1 exception)....

I have had great difficulty understanding the difference between a "stall day" and a tight close.  This definition of stalling looks very helpful, as does Tom Malagis' comment on recognizing the start of a base.  Here are some related questions.

Can high volume and a slightly LOWER close also be a stalling day on the upside?  (I assume it would signal a possible bottom on the downside, but I would welcome comments on that too.  Richard.

IBD treats a close in the bottom 40% of the day's trading range as positive.  If the definition used that instead of the bottom half, how would that affect the findings?

I noticed the definition includes an uptrend requirment.  Is there any reason why there could not be a stalling day during a downtrend, perhaps after a rally attempt and before confirmation ... or even without a rally attempt?

Hey Richard.....Some of us use this for marking mkt tops and is simple to use to clarify a stall day.  Some other thougths :

Can high volume and a slightly LOWER close also be a stalling day on the upside?   I would offer this could be a sign of selling into strength or hitting overhead resistance depending on the chart specifics.

BD treats a close in the bottom 40% of the day's trading range as positive.  If the definition used that instead of the bottom half, how would that affect the findings?   Gee I never heard that from them but in the lower half of the range comes from Bill in his market tops discussion the 4th edition HTMMIS so I went with that.

Is there any reason why there could not be a stalling day during a downtrend, perhaps after a rally attempt and before confirmation ... or even without a rally attempt?  I use it during a rally attempt after an FTD to count DD days..so yes you can use it for that.