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About ibd-paluszak

Member since: 3 Jun 2010
Location: The Villages, FL
Meetup: Lake/Sumter/Marion IBD Meetup Group

View ibd-paluszak's Blogs

2012 (3)

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COH - My buy for Tuesday
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COH - My buy for Tuesday
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ibd-paluszak's Post
Tags:
Breakout, Base on Base, COH

Comments
ibd-paluszak said...
July 03, 2011 at 09:05 AM

COH made a breakout on Friday.  One fault, it was only 31% higher volume, but for the week was 10% above average volume.  For the week it had 5 up days, three were above average.  This could be considered great compared to the general market weakness.  Someone was buying while all of the traders were away. It is a 3rd stage base, not good, but not as bad as all of those 4th, 5th or latter bases out there. It has a distracting distribution day on 6/24, but on 5/26 had a nice Acc day.  A/D rating is B.

It broke out of a Square box base, with a buy range of 64.53 to 67.75.  It only rose 16% from an April double bottom base, forming a base on base pattern.  

Strengths:

 C=EPS Est have been revised upwards for cur qtr, next qtr, cur yr and next yr

 A=Strong annual growth, 2009 was down, but turned around; great ROE; pre-tax profit margins of 31.9% (compared to UA @ 10.2%); strong cash flow; low earnings tability of 10;

 N=IPO in 2000

Weaknesses

 C=Declining EPS and sales growth; last qtr sales growth was 14%;

 A=Profit margin change is flat and off peak

 N=Decreasing fund ownership

 S=Supply/Demand rating is poor; Vol as % of float is 1.2%;

 L=Sector rank is 14; Ind Comp rating is 79; Ind Rank is 56, could be better, but a steady improvement from its March 21 rank of 143.

Let me know if you think this is a winner.

bjrad said...
July 03, 2011 at 10:50 AM

Absolutely agree with your read on COH.  I was also encouraged by the relatively tight weeks of trading with the exception of the distribution you highlighted. If earnings were accelerating and the pop on 31% volume had been somewhat stronger (i.e., >50%), it would be on my buy list.   Without that volume, and given the very light volume underlying the market's resurgence this week, I plan to keep it on my shortlist and see what happens.  The story and chance of significant growth in China is encouraging as well. Brad

ibd-paluszak said...
July 05, 2011 at 05:15 PM

In regards to the only 31% volume pop on Friday.  I was looking for stocks that were showing signs of strength during a week of light volume days.  During a normal trading day, 31% would be light, but on a light day as last Friday, 31% was very strong.  Someone was buying heavily when everyone else was away.  In fact the past 4 days, including today have been above average (but below the +50% volume day).  Compared to many other stocks a sure sign of someone acculating...

Robert

bjrad said...
July 06, 2011 at 06:10 PM

Robert:  Its holding up nicely!  Seven consecutive days of cumulative accumulation--by my math it is still legitimately "buyable" (i.e.; w/in the "+5% buy point" rule).  Tomorrow may prove interesting.  Earnings 8/3.  Brad

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