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Abe, Could you explain in more detail your observation in February which begins "No retracement of the thrust up off the 50DMA some low vol selling, etc...". Thanks. Brad
OK so we are talking about the 4 days that occur starting with the 36M shares on 1/31/00. The 36 million shares is enough to qualify for "Pocket Pivot" volume. The next 2 days are up with very little to no overlap/retracement of the 1/31/00 36M share day. The 3rd day provides follow on accumulation within 3 days. My rule says hold for 3 more days. Let's walk it up to the top. Follow on accumulation comes again on 2/8 - hold 3 more days. Distribution and no accumulation occur during the next 3 days so my rule says sell on 2/11 at 99. - Nab 10% in 2 weeks. Buy right back on 2/15 with a pocket pivot coming up off the 20 day. Hold 3 more days. Follow on accumulation/pocket pivot comes in on 2/17 hold 3 more days. 2/22 is a little tricky. It's a red day but only just barely and a higher low - 2/23 pop up to the highs with the S&P 500 confirms that 2/22 is really follow on accumulation. Same with 2/28 & 2/29- hold 3 days thru 3/2. 3/2 is pure distribution with no accum. within three days. My rule says sell. Nab 4% gain in 2 weeks. Next buy is 3/8 with Pocket Pivot - hold 3 days sell on 3/13 distribution with no gain or loss. Next buy is3/16 pocket pivot, hold 3 days - follow on accum comes in on 3/21 hold 3 more days. Now it gets a little tricky. Higher volume comes in blue on 3/24 and the stock closes well off of it's highs. It turns out that this is really distribution from the high at 120.5. Spot that quickly and the 3/28 distribution/close at the low and sell on 3/28 for a 5% gain. Or miss the 3/24 distribution and hold for 3 days - sell on 3/29 with 2 days distribution and no follow on accum. Nab a 1% gain. 10% + 4% + 1% compounded =15.544% over 9 weeks. Sharpen up to that 3/28 sale and 5% gain and 10% + 4% + 5% = 20.16% compounded. These same rules will get you into this chart on 11/3/99 but they will get you clipped on 1/5.
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