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In 1966 & 1969 & 2008 the 1st break of the 200 day was met by two or more months of slow climbing. In April of 2008 PCX, JRCC, & POT represented a narrow slice of the market that put up terrific gains.
Yes, the test of the back side of the 200dma seems to be a common theme. We have not tested the prior swing lows of 11 days ago. I would say that the shorts are likely to put on their positions again below the 1208 high like in 2008. If we break the swing lows that will give the bears confidence to add to their positions. Then the market could reverse higher to the 200dma taking out the shorts from1208. Thus the longs will have been shaken out on the break of 1101 and the shorts will be shaken out at 1208. This sweeping of stops will create a broadening pattern frustrating longs and shorts. Then we can make the real move back down to the March '09 lows where we should be had the Federal Reserve not been monkeying around with funny money.
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