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Hey all: I would love to hear your opinions on UA's chart at this point. I read the 6/11 UA blog & comments and find myself in agreement with Greg: the current structure is a base-on-base-on-base with the third base being that which was discussed back in June. Since then, without advancing above $83 it has corrected 36.6% (far greater than the market's correction). Is this latest correction another cup forming right after the last base (with the left side of the current cup peak at $82.95) or is it a larger double bttm base complex as part of a base-on-base-on-base-on-base (wow!) structure as I have marked up above? As a dbl bttm, the mid-peak of the "W" is too high. I see no legit base undercutting so I consider this large complex as a second stage base complex. That said, I could mark the chart up to make this a later stage (3rd or greater) base if I start counting further back in time (this is more valid than my hopeful call of a second stage here). The trade has become wider and looser and it seems to have a hard time breaking above $83 on volume. It has recaptured it's 50 & 200DMA with nice accumulation on the right side of the cup though. Thoughts? Brad
You've summed it up very well! B-o-b-o-b-o-b is exactly what I have too.
With regards to the possible larger W with the high midpoint, if the midpoint is above the high on the left, I guess that invalidates the W, making the latest base a CWH.
Finally, and unfortunately, I see a small base almost exactly 20% above the first-stage base, breaking out 6/16, making this recent complex, IMHO, a third-stage base in need of accumulation.
Meanwhile, I'm left wondering what the significance of the stock forming such a large complex over such a long time is - lack of conviction?
SM000: Yes. You are exactly correct; I missed that short cup just 23.1% above the last proper buy point (mid-W peak of first stage dbl bttm) = $29.99. That does make this a third stage b-o-b-o-b-o-b! @#$! it!
As for your wonderings, I agree it appears to be resisting going much higher lately. But, take a look at the monthly chart. It had a 7/07 high of 73.40 and this is exactly where its hitting (expected) resistance. It had a "stalling month" in 4/11 closing back in-line with this prior resistance in the low 70's. We may get our answer by waiting for a definitive break above this at which time it would be a breakout from a very gigantic Cup spanning 7/07-present. A/D = A-.
Fundamentally fairly strong except ROE=15%. I like the 30% Mngmnt Ownrshp and low debt w/ accelerating earnings and sales.
So, looks like a deep V-shape cup possibly forming a handle w/ potential buy points = $83.05 &/or $80.90. I like the fact that these shorter term buy points are above the ancient top in 7/07 @ $73. If it moves up on volume thru those points, I may join the ride for a hopeful fourth stage base (say in the $200 range-ha!). And, I'll go buy some new UA underwear! Brad
@#$! is right, my feelings exactly :-)
Resistance = > well spotted! The stock is showing support at the 50dma with strong RS line.. you may get your fourth base yet!
As for my comment that this is probably a CWH: yesterday's Stock Spotlight (9/23) says that RL is showing a "volatile 7wk pattern" pivot 141.81. However, this pivot appears as a spike halfway through the 7wks, and the pattern is 26% deep. So what pattern is this and how come it is acceptable to have a spike higher than the high on the left side? And can the same principle be applied to UA, making this a W-with-handle.
When I looked at the UA base count a while back, I thought the small base after the first base was a faulty Cup due to the wide and loose structure so I did not count it in the base count. I would also consider the current V shaped base a warning signal and it is wide and loose also. I also had posted a screen I use for checking stock fundamentals called IBD Stock Checklist that I use in MA to summarize the issues on the RHS of the screen. It allows me to stay in MA and get the analysis done w/o popping over the web based Stock Checkup.
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