I’ve received a half dozen questions this morning as to why I stated (via Twitter) that I felt yesterday did not qualify as a FTD, while IBD did. The substance of my prior blog, “Go Softly into this Rally Attempt,” and today’s IBD Big Picture are, in essence, completely the same.


I primarily use the S&P500 and the Nasdaq for this analysis. IBD called the FTD on the New York Composite…a very close call considering it closed just above the mid-range on the day with most of the selling occurring towards the close. As stated previously, I am wading in carefully, watching to see if stocks take hold. If they don’t, I won’t argue with the market. Classic FTDs in the past have been significantly stronger than this one. They should leave no doubt.

That is why I am very careful with my operations at this point. Patience and discipline is everything right now. There has been a recent and subtle positive character change in the market. The jury is out as to whether it materializes and we get a small window of opportunity.  However, the high risk in the market is still present and, frankly, the market could go either way here. I suggest that if you do anything; keep it small until we get more clarity.

To further clarify my interpretation of the current market action, I’ll be doing a live webinar tomorrow, Friday, October 14th. Click here to register http://community.marketsmith.com/telligent/forums/f/7/p/4018/8267.aspx.


Best Returns,


Scott O’Neil

President, MarketSmith Incorporated

Follow Scott O'Neil at Twitter.com/WScottOneil