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I read ISRG as a sell here. Or at least a lighten up of shares. Most of my analysis is straight out of HTMMIS. After watching thousands of RS leaders breakout, I have observed that 4 days without accumulation and a distribution day tends to lead to a pullback.
I WOULD THINK IT WOULD BE A BAD CALL TO SELL HERE. It did not go up 20% in three weeks, so that doesn't mean to sell here. You sell when the stock goes up 20% or 15% in tough market. this stock is known for going up on low volume. For crying out loud, it hasn't even broken the 10day.
Most of the stocks that had broke out have not broken down so until then I would be Invested especially in a liquid leader like ISRG.
I've been paying particular attention as to how far a movement can go, before it begins another base. From what I've seen, the current climate indicates that if the movement hits a new high with less than above 40% volume, that the next base or consolidation ends up forming.
While this is just my observations, some may be seeing something else.
I think your call is sound and comprehensive.
The main points of my sell call is that the call is profitable and cautious. Time will tell us if it is accurate. The number one point that came across at the first O'Neil workshop I did back in 2003 was Bill's quote "All strength and power all the time". If you look at how Netflix took off in Sept of 2010, it gave us 3 separate 20% moves in less than 3 weeks during August and September of 2010. And then it nearly doubled from the high of the September burst. Now that was a powerhouse.
I think they have a saying, Price trumps Volume.
Nice call Abe. Everyone loves saying only price pays - but only if you are selling into it;-)
Thanks, Lon. It's helps a lot when you can hang on to 2.5% here and there.
Miamorekarina, if a pocket pivot shows up, taking ISRG back up through the ten day or more likely to launch off from the 20 day or 50 day, I will hope to be one of the first to join. I like to buy pocket pivots in stocks that have run 20% in less than three weeks in the past 10 weeks. ISRG did run up 27% in less than 3 weeks from 350 and 21% in 2 weeks starting from 320. So I was happy to participate with the pocket pivot that showed up after earnings. However, it seems most 20-30+% 3 week bursts will consolidate for at least 3 weeks before starting again. Unless we are in year 1 or 2 of a ripping bull market, I don't like to have anything to do with those consolidations. They can be very deep or unwind completely. Another reason to be extra cautious is the big profits being rolled out at AAPL & BIDU here, may start to swamp the entire market.
Never heard that saying before: All Strength and Power All the Time, but I do like it as it appears fitting. Anyone find the big winners have this trait ?
very good observation. I will definitely study my holdings and prospects for similar patterns. This market is tought. For what it is worth, Chris Karcher (former very successful Oneal Money Manager) called a for a market sell siignal and purchase of TYH or more agressiving shorting ETFs. Dr. Kacher and Gil Morales wrote the book, "Trade Like An O'Neil Disciple: How We Made 18,000% in the Stock Market".
When did they make that call (Karcher), if you don't mind me asking? How do you keep in touch with their market actions? Subscriptions? Thanks!
Dr. Kacher's website www.virtueofselfishinvesting.com
Tom- AAPL is the only stock I can think of that went up big without big blue sckyscrapers.
Dr. Kacher's model has moved back to neutral. The NASDAQ Composite breached the high it set on the day of the 5th distribution day, thus the model moves back to cash. The model did well in August and September but has been whipsawed back and forth for most of the year.
$60/month is reasonable for their reported returns. Anybody subscribing to the service?
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