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I probably sold this way too soon, but the 6% profit margin and overhead trade make me too jumpy with this stock.
nice breakdwn. I can't say I blame you, LNKD is a hard trade. I can only handle it if I carry 1/3rd of a normal position. Anything bigger and its too consuming for me.
Like busses, there's always another one...
Don't beat yourself up on this one. Tough trade. You are ABSOLUTELY CORRECT to respect the overhead supply on this, still "new", stock. I think I would have done the same had I been in. I like Lon's comment re: buses. Just catch the next one when the upside seems less precarious. As WON says, one of the greatest errors new investors make is not respecting overhead supply. Brad
I'm not sure why I would beat my self up over a 19% win with a regular 50% buy and a 30% buy. The only question is that I have chosen to disregard the up 20% in less than 3 weeks - hold for 8 weeks rule due to overhead supply. The market is confirming that decision, but on lower volume. Additionally I am not sure why you can only carry 1/3 of a normal postion. Looking at SPY weekly, this 5 month run has been more powerful than any 5 months since 2009. AAPL is getting a little climactic here, but the high volume launches from solid support areas are working. We will have to see how RAX, V, ISRG, INVN, TDG, STX, SCSS, WFM, SAVE, RATE, and CXO handle their new highs. It's a nice new crop of leadership.
Abe, Lon, and Brad, I am not sure the 8 week hold rule applies with this kind of stock. Not really “CanSlim Quality, at least the way I seethe stock. It has a 50% retracement from the high. And is just meandering. I do not own it but if I did I would think I if I had a profit in the stock I would be much more interested in protecting it and booking it than trying to hold for 8 weeks for more. Lots of other better working fish in the sea as Abe lists above. Don
Don - I agree.
To answer Abe's q: its the reason I use a smaller position when I trade more speculative issues, that i don't fully understand, trade purely on the technicals or don't enjoy how the issue trades (volatile, gappy). Otherwise, I get stopped out too quickly as my nerves will get the better of me and I'll use a tight stop. Smaller positons allows it to range more w/out me worrying.
I use a standard Oneil type portfolio, which houses 6-8 concentrated positions. to have 20% or more of my money in speculative plays isn't for me. It messes up my head.
Check out the chart similarities between BIDU when it went public in 2005 and LNKD. Both shot up from initial price, formed deep corrections and then worked on the right side of the base. BIDU cleared it and shot up, becoming one of the best stocks in this era.
I bought LNKD on the third pocket pivot it showed and I am currently holding. I think today's action is constructive. The market pulled back and reversed on volume and big winner APPL had a nasty day and violated the 500 level, but LNKD held its pattern, a good sign to me. I am watching this position to take profits or possibly add to my position if action is positive. These new issues are volatile and offer opportunities for big advances.
I was able to buy breakouts on V, BWLD, and RAX the past few weeks but sold Wednesday because of the inter day reversal....
Time will tell. Looked at SXL..what do you see here
Weekly chart shows no reason to sell. I speculate that this will test resistance at 95 and 115. I also think this may ride the "Facebook coattails". Social media may be the "theme" for this season. I'm letting the chart tell me when to sell. Certainly no harm in taking profits when you have them, though.
hey all- what do you guys think of LNKD at this point in time?
The way I see it is a hold. I have a 10% gain and have built up a full sized position and can handle pullbacks to the 86ish area. There is resistance at 95, as evidenced by its attempted breakout that led to a reversal. It has demonstrated nice constructive action as it is in a base. I am waiting to see if it can gather to buying power to break out over the 95 price level. Like dave said, facebook and social media theme may bring investors to invest in this new sector.
I am also following ZNGA as they both have common characteristics and are in the same sector. Any ideas you guys have are appreciated.
I am always much more interested in the 4 day weighting of accumulation vs distiribution. 3/14 - 3/15 - 3/16 look downwardly weighted to me.
Especially as shown by all the comments in this thread, how you view this stock depends on your strategy and timeframe. If you're looking at a longer term move with high profit potential, you'd likely interpret February's gap-up and the large volume move through the 10 day moving average 2 weeks ago as very bullish signs, setting the stage for a strong upward price move. Abe seems to operate on a much shorter timeframe, in which he places heavy weighting on recent volume moves, so that gives a completely different outlook.
2 legs and 8 weeks up is pretty much the longest hold I can imagine sitting through. Afterwards I would reneter the stock launching from the 50 day or 10 day.
I guess 12 to 18 months into a bear market, I could enter a CAN SLIM top innovative leader that began to show great relative strength. Then if I got a big cushion quickly I might be inclined to hang in for a long term capital gain and add to pull backs as strong volume returned. That strategy worked will in 2009; 1982 and 1974.
However there is always a caveat to any strategy. 18 months wasn't a big enough bear market in 2001-2002. Fortunately, the 36 month bear is a rare animal.
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