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Scott O'Neil says he got caught in the NUAN down draft; MIND clipped me back with a 6% loss as I tried to enter at the 10 day line; SPPI couldn't reclaim it's 50 day line; TDG started off with pocket pivot volume in the morning on 2/29 and that strength quickly evaporated; Yesterday's launch in RAX is quickly back below the 10 day line and closed right near yesterday's low. It will be hard for RAX to show heavy volume averaging up from here. I'm back to cash and may reduce any entries to about half normal size.
I'm not sure I'd take those examples and conclude a high failure rate. For every NUAN I can point out 5 setups that have worked like MA, PCLN, ISRG, UA or LULU. I've consolidated my 10 or so initial buys into 6 positions since the follow through day, and have double digit gains even after my small drawdowns.
Nice work. I'm not sure if I see 5 successful stocks for every breakdown. With my private small account, I tend to take concentrated positions of two or three stocks that I can be very nimble with. It fits for me. My high water mark for the year was a 17% gain in the account. After MIND and RAX, I am now back to 8.9% for the year and in 100% cash at yesterday's close.
I hate margin, as it throws off my perception of risk/reward. I don't see the need. Three 9% quarters per year is 29.5% annualized ROR. I'll be satisfied with that.
Thanks for sharing and happy returns. I tend to take a little bit longer term approach; I've been shaken out too many times by short term corrections only to watch big gains be made after I needlessly sold. Good job though avoiding today's ugly drop!
uh i dont know if 29.5% in a good year is good.
but its true i havent seen a lot of setups
but if u can make 30% or more a year i read that you should be working for yourself.
Bruce.Lee - Not sure on what planet a 30% return doesn't qualify as good? Hate to have you as a client...
Great call Abe on the market behaviour. I wanted to lighten up on my holdings even before I checked the futures and the market made me do that anyway. Smaller names (FIRE, FIO, RAX etc) got beaten up more than AAPL, ISRG and PCLN. These type of days help find the true leaders, I guess.
Ryan, I'm not worried about getting shaken out as there is really only a very narrow window of behavior that I like to own. That behavior being a pocket pivot in a CAN SLIM Stock off a rising 50day, 20day or 10 day line followed by accumulation, higher within 3-4 days.
March 06, 2012 at 11:13 AM
Bruce.Lee - Not sure on what planet a 30% return doesn't qualify as good? Hate to have you as a client..."
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