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I am surprised we haven't seen more posts on NSM.
OK. Perhaps I am goofing this up, but I just closed my NSM position. I know I am supposed to hold it for 8 weeks, but the market has dressed down a lot of stocks like QCOR, CRUS, CSTR, SLXP, LNKD and even the home builders like LEN and RYL are joining in the selling. It seems like the market is breaking down some of the current leaders to see where the real strength is, before it resumes an uptrend and NSM could be due for a test of the 20 dma or 50 dma. I don't want to be around to find out which one.
I am pretty proud of this trade, getting buy 1, 2 and 3 on 6/27 even with IBD calling the Market in Correction that morning. Launching out of three weeks tight, following a 56% run up in four and 1/2 weeks, I could not pass it up. It shows you that Market in Correction directly following a 15 week run up like Q1 2012, should be handled very differently than Market re-entering Correction 12 weeks into the correction.
Still even with the NSM win, the wins in CERN, PCYC, EAT & INVN the whole account is up about 5.8% year to date. Just under the performance of the S&P 500. Wins have been offset mostly by losses in VRX, and SSYS getting chewed up as it came up through the 50 dma. While 5.8% doesn't seem very exciting, all it takes is for one winner to get a full concentration, an twelve week run in the market that produces two or three stocks with moves of 20-25% and then we start leading the market performance.
I am currently 15% invested based on the S&P 500 holding onto the 6/29 follow through day.
I am happy to see you are up for the year in such a tough market. It almost makes a trader just want to trade in and out of the QQQ's instead of individual stocks, when buy and sell signals are issued. A trader could be up 15 % plus on the QQQ's without all the heartburn and frustration, if they were to go 100% long, and to cash when a sell is issued.
I am up this year as a result of the uptrend that started Dec 20th, but these last two uptrends did not do much for my bottom line. Took losses not large, but losses none the less. It does not bode well for the US economy whem you have two uptrends fail in ten days or less one right after the other. I do not know if there are any rules regarding uptrend failures there time span or sequence. It would be interesting to see if similiar situation occured in the past and what portends for the market.
I do not know of any rules regarding failures after a FTD but i do know follow through days have a fairly bad success rate.Its always best to set your standards high.
1.4%-1.5% or more on heavy volume
follow on accumulation is a plus.
From what i understand usually a distribution day the day after (or within a few days)of a follow through day typically knocks the market back into a correction.Which the action in the past month is a decent example
Doesn't it seem like NSM should make the cut for Leaderboard? 2 billion market cap with 800,000 shares average daily volume. We get lots of analysis of ISRG selling off hard below a downward sloping 50 day moving average. But Group A+ leader & composite rated 99 NSM is a glaring ommission.
IBD is hands down the best market analysis, though sometimes the deafening silence stuff is terribly annoying. I guess they have to save their analysis on the very best stuff for the $25,000/year subscribers.
Still, I think their subscription revenue would add up better if they favor the little guys and level the playing field.
Exhibit A. 2000 fund subscribers at $25,000 per year is $50 million per year.
Exhibit B 60,000 small subscribers at $1,000 per year is $60 million per year.
The big shops would be a little grumpy. The little guys and big guys would duke it out on the tape for dominance rather than by closed door agreements. Talk about a free market.
Abe....nice trade off the 3 wks tigth and good call on the sell pt. Gutsy trade with this mkt action. I agree with your deafening silence issue also. Thanks for sharing...
Abe, Nice trade! I agree with lwcolwell, it was gutsy--you have brassier ones than I my friend! I followed NSM all the way up but the market's whipsawing (and NSM's exorbitant debt), kept me sidelined. Like others, the 12/20 run-up was nicely profitable but I gave some back during the choppiness (the losers for me were my fault--didn't follow buy rules closely, rationalized chasing, &, sure enough, shaken out). Live and learn! Regarding the FTD discussion, I would encourage everyone, if you already haven't, to check out WON & Chris Gessel's webcast, in which they address the importance of catching trades just before, on, or shortly after, the FTD, as the "best" $$ are made by getting in the earliest. With this, they also discuss the way they approach FTDs varying in the size of the price move (i.e., a +1.2% vs. +1.7% FTD) as well as the importance of noting early distribution in the broader markets. Thanks Abe! Brad
This is where Chart Arcade practice really helps. There has to be a good fundamental story, but the price and volume action will tell you how good it is. The run from 13 to 19.5 in just over three weeks with lots of accumulation in the middle of a correcting market was so powerful, that I knew I wanted in on this stock.
Just as a point of referance. I have been switched to NSM from Auroa Home loan. The trasition went well and the coustomer service seemed to handel my question. The part I do not get is a lot of the loans they are servicing are under water. They are a big company by asset but there is still a long hall to get out of the woods. I own the stk.
Where can we listen to WON & Chris Gessel's webcast you are reffering to?
WON & Chris' webcast had a lot of good stuff. Enjoy!
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