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20% run up in less than three weeks happened in the first leg of the TCBI ascending base.
This was one of three positions I moved into that week. The other two failed but I got out without getting hurt too much but this one I still hold. I am new to all this but it is pleasing to see I got one right my first time at bat. I'm up 10% as of today. Now I just have to time my exit well.
Does anyone have any thoughts on Pattern Rec vs. what is said in IBD? Today's IBD mentioned that TCBI is extended from a flat base BP of 39.41 and meanwhile we see an ascending base in pattern rec.
I do realize that investing is as much an art as it is a science. Is this merely an example of that dichotomy or is this not truly an ascending base? Thoughts?
I think we have to take the position the 40%-50% of buys won't work even from quality bases (see CSTR). This is a possible ascending base according to pattern rec, but the "extended" comments suggests that this is a more advanced entry and that casual readers of the paper might become easily confused by trying to read ascending bases which are typically a ways up off the 50 day, where an improper reading is more prone to a sharp break.
Using the "only trust a pocket pivot for three more days rule", usually gets me out of a bad trade with a less than 4.5% loss, so I can be more confident in an entry within 5% of the low of the pocket pivot day like today.
Abe- is this one at risk (or has it already) violated your 3 or 4 day w/out accumulation rule?
I know Pocket Pivot can any one explain what does 'only trust a pocket pivot for three more days rule"
Great question. I really prefer stocks that can accumulate again right away after a breakout. However we must develop a "composite opinion". Remember that most stocks that give you a valid CAN SLIM base, and do not fall 7% from the pivot point, will likely give you some 8-25% move upward over the "Don't take profits during the first eight weeks of a move unless the stock gets into serious trouble or is having a two-three week climax run up" rule pg 271 HTMMIS.
My account is small and I am at my desk all day, so I can be pretty nimble. With TCBI distributing today while MLNX, SSYS, AGU, ASH,are showing pocket pivot volume from buy points at the 50 dma or from the top of the base, I would have sold the TCBI in order to consolidate into those names and take my shots along side the heavy volume.
I closed my four day hold of SPF today based on these rules. Tiny profit, but I believe I can get into the other names that are starting their 3-6 day bursts, and then I will see how those act.
I didn't get SSYS because I have been burned a lot on handles deeper than 12%. Maybe I can catch it launching from the 50 day over the next few weeks.
The "Only trust a pocket pivot for three more days rule, during which it had better show accumulation again and quickly get higher in price or I will sell it." rule came from practicing on hundreds and hundreds of charts in Chart Arcade. see Chart Arcade Ten Rules that Work community.marketsmith.com/.../7509.aspx
In today's real life example, I can buy SPF on 7/12 with the pocket pivot, sell it today with a tiny gain and then buy MLNX today.
It isn't very exciting in this last four days, however the rules can get me into CSTR on 6/26 & 6/29 and out of CSTR on 7/10 with a small gain rather than a small loss. The small gains and losses really add up over the course of a year.
Regarding MLNX - should it be sold tomorrow, held or even added based on the "gap-up buy rule"?
Now that it is 40% up off the 50 dma, I think locking in some of the profit might be appropriate. However this launch has happened very early as the market is starting to turn up. So I suppose that giving it at least a few more days or maybe eight weeks from the June breakout for a substantial piece of the holding might allow the larger move to be captured. Remember even the fastest stocks like QCOM 1999; TZOO 2004; DRYS 2007 dove back toward the 50 dma at some point.
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