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This market wants to go higher. Even AAPL’s current weakness is not masking this. After this 2 ½ week rally, the market could’ve gone either way at the 50 dma. But we held the gains and it looks like there is less resistance to the upside. Historically, seasonality also favors this conclusion.
The short side is higher risk. But the choppy environment is making both going long or short difficult and unpredictable. Interestingly, the charts currently look better on the short side, than the long side. Maybe this implies the uptrend won’t have legs through the 1st quarter next year.
There is a constant stream of news stories to which the market tends to overreact to every word. In my opinion, the commentary coming from Washington is purely posturing and political, not substantive. Uptrend or not, this is not our kind of market and we need to remain cautious and small until a new trend is made more clear.
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I took 8 straight losses his past two weeks. Companies breaking out and failing. I did buy 25% of the allotted allocation per stock...
But even small losses hurt....
Does the 2 consecutive DD's on the $NYSE immediately following the 'follow-through' day basically Spell the end of this Rally though not officially called?
If you include Fri's Stall day that is a build-up of three on the $Nyse within the space of only 6 trading days following the Ftd?
To me it looks like churning on the s&p. And the leadership today looks like a bunch of turkeys trying to lead the market.
It seems like a "wait and see" market to me until the fiscal cliff stuff is decided one way or another. Good time to build watch lists.
@jeff: My batting average has also suffered recently. In fact, my successes have all been on the short side these last 8 weeks. But you are right, that small losses begin to hurt…as they start to add up. So when I notice that I’m striking out a lot, I usually sit out a few innings. There’s nothing wrong with watching part of the game from the bleachers. The markets will always be there.
@Stephen: Yes, those distribution day count does bother me. Just like the marginal FTD bothers me. That’s why I’m so cautious and very small right now.
@Brendan03us: You are probably right. You can fall back on your recent batting average and the performance of your portfolio to tell you what you should do.
Build your watch list. Keep an eye on future leaders in tech, retail, medical. Some super caps, too.
This game is so hard to play, somehow i managed to lose in all my long and short sides... a lot of small losses can hurt... Now the only way to stay away, and only watch the game...
As Scott and his father suggest, start out with one or two positions, and just take a half position and see if it works out. You could keep 70 to 80 % in cash - and cut your losses at 3 to 5 % on each position. In this market it is critical to keep losses to a bare minimum and to not take more positions unless the stocks you own are working. I follow a few CAN SLIM advocates and people who use variations on CAN SLIM and no one seems to have made any money since April or May.
2012 was not a fun year. Its done and hopefully the lessons learned will make you money in 2013. Just dont get gun shy. Play smaller and tighter if need be, but don't hesitate on pulling the trigger.
I too took a lot of small loses in 2012 but it is part of the learning process to "get over" the small losses which is good capital preservation per CANSLIM & Marketsmith guidelines. Yep I losts a few battles in the chop but the war rages on. A few current longs like EMN and CVLT look promising and just waiting on RMD to hit the + 2% add pt. Yesterday's advance > 1.7% on 20% volume BTW may be characterized as a "strong" confirming FTD despite the 4 or 5 DD count on the NASDAQ & SP500 (which is why the IDB outlook changed today) So, I have raised the % in the mkt but keeping a tight leash on mental stop/losses.
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