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In a market day as rainy as the weather up here in Montreal, KORS seems to be standing out.
After beating earnings estimates (+138% EPS). Retails sales are up 59% and gross margins increased 2%. ROE seems to be 53%. EPS has accelerated last three quarters (96%, 129%, 138%). Guidance was a disappointment however.
KORS has been plagued by public offerings near each breakout but this time, it doesn't seem to be happening as it finally showed conviction in breaking out today despite the bad market day. Volume was well over 1000% (385% as of now) this morning which usually is a good sign it will beat the 40% necessary for a solid breakout at the end of the day. Some people like to wait until near the end of the day to buy once more volume info is available. I like to be more active and project volume based on current % above average as stated in IBD. If you see 4 digit volume percent increases, you're pretty much OK to dive in.
This stock survived 80% of my checklist which is good enough for me. Where it failed is RS >= 80 and U/D >= 1.1. Let's see if the resistance at 65.10 is a threat.
Alright, lunchtime is over on the east coast. Back to my real job!
Cheers,
Mike
I agree, it has the makings for a good run. I plunged in myself early this morning after the good news. KORS made a nice umbrella for the portfolio.
Oh, and it is still in the BUY ZONE!
yup added towards the close. Be a shame if the market turns on this one.
No truer words, but it looks like the Market may be turning on this one... all we can do is watch. Tough day today.
Look for a bounce back on KORS for Monday and Tuesday of next week.
KORS is not showing itself to be a good prospect. Even the most volatile stocks shouldn't drop more than 7 or 8% from their recent high, and the very best rarely drop more than 4 or 5%
Unless KORS can recover substantially today, I think now is a poor time to be buying it
I would add that the right side of KORS base is flawed. If you look at the number of days the stock was down, there are just too many down days. The strongest stocks show multiple up days, with just one or two sporadic days when the stock is down.
It is very hard to analyze any stock in the midst of high market volatility and instability. I put all of my stocks on 4% trailing stop loss to sell if stricken and raise cash. This is too wierd, I am headed to the sidelines for a bit.
I'm actually still in as the pullback is tight and on increasingly smaller volume. It's kind of wedged between 10 day and 20 day SMAs.
If Friday is ugly I'll probably let this go until the market improves, but so far no rally clear sell signal.
My sell checklist says to sell only if the breakout fails on increasing volume, or of course cuts the 50dma.
Stopped out at 60, market's correcting anyway.
Will try again if we see conviction on the bounce off the 50 dma,... if it bounces on good volume.
Pullback so far is not really that bad.
Respectfully disagree....KORS is a dud, for now. Compare with SODA, which showed a profit almost immediately after the break out. and continued higher. No matter how stellar a stocks ratings, it is the price action of the stock that is the ultimate arbiter. KORS hasn't even held it's pivot point.
I thought 40 percent of breakouts back off to the pivot (or even the 50 day?)?
They often do, but usually it's only intraday or perhaps for a day or two. The very best stocks will show a profit within a a few days. I use very tight stops, usually 4% is the maximum loss I will accept unless the stock shows exceptional strength either in the prior uptrend, or the base (up >10% in a few days during the base). If you show a loss >4% it just means your timing or stock selection was wrong. It's better to move on to something else. A loss of 4% means you can be wrong quite often and make up for it with just a 15 to 20% gain. CAN SLIM helps you narrow your search for stocks with the highest probability of doing well, but it is still the price action that should dictate your trading.
Very much appreciated for the tips. I do try to keep my stops tight and lately have been hitting nearly all of them. Losses are small but not fun. I guess I'm a bit stubborn so if I don't see a glaring sell signal I'll hold on. I'll have to change that to make decisions based on the reality of the market right now.
Thank you!
I was stopped out from KORS, but bought it back today, when I saw a support from 50m/a. I think, it is a bad market conditions, who do not allow the stocks to progress from a buy point...
I have to say I'm starting to side with you dtempest... on second thought the RS line is starting to lag. Looking for leaders on the FTD...
KORS might just finally be ready to move higher
After trying for a breakout in late may it pulled back as the market went into correction.It pulled back to its 200dma and volume was fairly tame which means funds weren't dumping shares.The stock has done what so many other stocks have done throughout the entire year.Try and break out,Pull back to a moving avg. shaking out weak holders.Then takes off.I have quite a few leaders that have shown much similar action.Since the pullback the stock has bounced back pretty constructively as the market is staging it's rally attempts.Any solid move above the 66.18 price level could push the stock higher.
One to watch.
Great discussion on this potential winner. I sold out with a solid gain as it corrected in May w/ the market's correction, but am tempted to re-enter as it climbs back from the shakeout that shook me out. Back within buy range, but market remains in correction. I completely agree with dtemptest notes re: KORS' RS. It was this low RS along with the market correction that dictated my profit taking. Brad
I wouldn't buy anything below an RS of 95. I tried PVH today but you can tell it doesn't have the oomph. I set my stop very tight because I don't want to lose any money on this if it doesn't work.
Geo_Effect, what you describing, if it's accompanied by a contraction in volatiliy and volume as it hits resistance over and over again. Minervini details this explicitly in his book (game-changing book for me BTW). You can measure it for KORS:
1st swing: 51.63/65.10 = 21% drop
2nd swing: 57.10/66.18 = 14% drop
Volume 50 SMA and Average True Range are dropping.
It seems to be doing a 3rd swing, but if it breaks out now, the pivot is actually 66.18.
What's good about this is that the absolute stop-loss point (8% for me), is at the 50 SMA and also more or less corresponds to three times the ATR value. To me this is a low-risk entry if you assume support at the 50 day however the chart plainly shows support seems to be the 200 SMA, which is almost twice my absolute risk.
I haven't read it but I will check it out thanks.
I do agree with you.I prefer stocks with an 80-85 but preferably higher.We have to trade based on ones risk tolerance so in this case the 200dma is deep and not worth the risk.What would have been more constructive if it offered an earlier pocket pivot buy point.Which I prefer to buy.You could also buy a strong bounce off of the 200dma or 50dma(as likely support)if you want to take a shot and get in earlier(there are rules regarding that).RS ratings can always improve if the stock starts to outperform.I think from a fundamental perspective the stock is great.I believe the reason for the weak rs line could be because of the few offerings the stock had to absorb.Which it did pretty orderly.Assuming the general market can follow through this might start to get some attention.Even if the market continues to chop or move downward if this can hold up strong(not necessarily break out) it should improve the rs rating a lot and also let the 200dma move up a bit closer to that 8% stop loss area.
I'd like to see the RS line beat the price to their last high (66.18). Also reassessing the contraction seen now, there are actually three contractions:
65.10 to 51.63 (21%, bounce off 200 day, cup)
66.18 to 57.96 (12%, bounce off 50 day)
62.45 to 56.15 (10%, bounce off 150 day), should've shaken out most of the 50 day buyers (sorry Alex!). Breakout attempt past two days, both failed.
Average volume nearly halved during this time, ATR dropped 0.4 as well.