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Bonjour à tout le monde!
Enough negativity with ALK and ASGN, I'm going to look into TSLA now, one of my flagged stocks.
Fundamentally Tesla is hard to crunch just looking at the IBD data as it's scant at the moment. It seems the bulk of the 96 CR is due to its technical strength (note EPS and SMR ratings are 59 and D, respectively).
However, I am a big Elon Musk fan, especially SpaceX! This company will take over the commercial space launch industry in the USA and forwards for quite a while. I cannot wait until it goes public and forms that first juicy base!
Alas for now, if you want to invest in Elon, Tesla is the place to be. I think he has the right philosophy in engineering large scale projects (read his Wired interview online), and I'm confident enough working in aircraft fly-by-wire to make this kind of assessment. He's more worried about execution than meeting dates and marketing goals. Also he works along with everyone else in his own cube, so he doesn't only have a superficial view of his company. The benefit here is avoiding situations which always ends up in executives making handshake deals on schedule and cost without any basis in engineering/project judgment. He seems like a guy that runs on honesty and conviction.
Products
We all have seen the Roadster sell well, the model S came out last year and sold a hefty amount of units in Q1 this year (4900 units), which seemed to be the catalyst for the stock's recent move.
They will introduce an SUV in 2014 called the model X as well as the next gen Roadster. If sales keep up, this is looking pretty good!
Now to the technicals...
So the hope is here that for an 2nd entry point into this stock to emerge after its amazing run the past couple of months... in fact it's more than doubled in this time-frame.
Could this be the genesis of a high tight flag? The market is due for at least a minor pull back, enough time to create the 15-20% consolidation on hopefully decreasing volume, thus forming the flag. It has already corrected from a high of 97.12 to a low of 85.28, or ~13 %.
Time will only tell, and I'm using the word 'hope' a lot, but all that means is waiting in the bush like a velociraptor waiting to ambush its tasty prey.
UPDATE:
Moved stop to 115 as I think all the weak holders are out since the skydive to the 10 week on 7.16. Luckily a trampoline was present as I have no hard stops on this stock due to soon to be ex-broker. I usually put a trailing 8% stop, but more volatile stocks need more room here. 3x ATR is almost 20$ but I think support has been re-established on the 20 day until at least the 3xATR matches my 115 stop. I also want to protect at least 10$/share of profit.
Up 17.33% since going in @114.06 on July 1st.
Looks bubblicious. Unless I'm in front of the screen all day it's just too fret with risk of a sharp and hard correction. Sounds like the big issue is scaling production. Teslas are beautiful cars but there's too much man hours to produce each vehicle for now.
That's true, but with proper management and R&D, which from I can see is already in place, this is definitely a great avenue to improve pre-tax margins once they improve their automation capabilities. This is not an unfeasible goal.
About the HTF, don't they always look overpriced? They tend to break upper channels when they occur, so it scares many investors away.
Breakouts from HTFs usually don't waver around their pivot, so any sign of weakness near the BO is a sell signal and thus a tight, automated stop would be in definite order, you are absolutely correct on this.
Finally for comparative reference, this looks a lot like the Syntex CWH + HTF example from late '62 early '63 which is a classic WON chart of success. The HTF formed literally right off of the breakout from the CWH and added 482% in 25 weeks. Even the volume action is eerily similar (steep rise in avg volume due to a torrent of demand in the pole). The first down week was also above avg vol but below the prior week's surge.
Check out this link:
education.investors.com/.../568876-a-connoisseurs-base-the-high-tight-flag.htm
Also download the PDF on ascending bases and HTFs here (#5 in a series, you can find them all on google):
files.meetup.com/.../AscBase_HTF_Booklet.pdf
The Syntex chart is shown in a much larger and more detailed timeframe.
Thanks for the comment!
Man it just keeps going up. Weekly it's all still all blue...
Interesting to see if this forms a high tight flag. see if it moves sideways for the next 3-4 weeks.
Study some of the High Tight Flag historical examples and the encompassing total move like GM initial base $34 to $500, QCOM (split adjusted) initial base$7 to $200, MNST initial base (split adjusted) $3 to $100, BEN Initial base (split adjusted) $3 to $50, gives you some perspective of where it could possibly go based strictly on technical and possible precedent. TSLA initial base $40 to ??? Certainly not saying it will follow one of those precedents, but the more you study the better prepared you'll be to try and handle the move.
Hope you don't mind a contrary opinion. TSLA could be a text book chart of a stock going through a classic blow-off. Break-away gap at $40, Runaway gap at $65, and Exhaustion gap at $100. And massive volume. My guess is this ends up looking like the recent charts of FNMA and FMCC.
I would be careful. You can lose a LOT of money fastt in these situations. And it wouldn't hurt to read this WSJ piece explaining the massive Zero Emission Credits that Tesla benefits from as well as some other points.
online.wsj.com/.../SB10001424127887324659404578499460139237952.html
it's still working on it.
The reason I think it's not exhausted is that:
a) no prior uptrend except in range bound period during long consolidation
b) no exhaustion gap or railroad tracks in ramp up
c) consolidation is tight and volume is tightening and volume is dropping.
d) the flag is contracting in volatility.
TSLA has superb fundamentals, and living in West Los Angeles, I can tell you that the cars are becoming ubiquitous. It's revenue growth is off the charts, and if you look at earnings projections, they are huge. Sure, some time may have to pass after this recent monster run, but it certainly has the profile of a monster stock in terms of revenue growth, earnings growth, a unique product etc.
Finally in after the low volume breakout.
Joined the QQQ! Great premarket today. Happy man. :)
Anyone survive the 20% intraday move 2 weeks ago to make it to the new highs yesterday?
The only reason I did was that I'm holding this in my crappy TD account which only allows auto stop selling with round lots (don't ask, their website hasn't changed since the 90's either). So I just stood there bewildered, like a deer in the headlights. Luckily it never breached the 10 week, so it in fact became a major week of support and stripped ALL the weak holders.
sold 1/3@143, 1/3@34, holding the rest until next base or 10 wk slice.
1/3@134 not 34
I have decided to hold this stock,also, unless it breaches the 10 week
The company has a good story , major shareholders, Musk plus Toyota and Mercedes
This company could be a gamechanger , holding enough profits to one day buy a Model S
goodluck !
This stock is a trend followers dream. You can't discount the insanely high short interest in TSLA, which actually increased during the last two weeks of July to remain over 30% of the float. The most recent price dip places support around 140 - break through that convincingly and the trend is over.
last third up about 43%. Still waiting for another buy point.
added in on today's pocket pivot.