Good news, my model has triggered a nascent rally. My model differs from IBD since I only look at NASDAQ and the model considered its action yesterday as a follow-through on a day 4 attempt.

 

The NASDAQ composite reached 6 distribution days mid-March and I sold all my $TQQQ for a 6.9% gain. This was held since Feb 10. At this point my model went into a correction until yesterday.

 

Yesterday the composite went up 1.64% on 4% higher volume, although it's below the 50-day volume average. The past three days have shown three up days with the last two on increasing volume, solidifying support at 4150, which served as resistance in January when it carved a mini-double-bottom under this value.

 

In this case, my model triggered a nascent rally, with no distribution days tagging along. Therefore I'll be long $TQQQ at the open today. Note the percentage gains/losses on the 0NDQC ($COMPQ) chart are based on trading the $TQQQ.

 

When was the last time we've seen such a stable rally for what seems like 5 quarters now? 2009? The late 90's?

Ideally I would like the NASDAQ to confirm a secular rally by beating its all-time-high, and then have a short term correction of 10-15%. At that point, a new bull phase can begin, unless systemic risks such as continued non-regulation of the banks, school debt or mortgages sink the economy. Indeed, this may mean I'm calling a bear market only when the president's seat is up for election, and not as soon as others may be predicting.

 

In the end, though, this is all fun and games, and what really matters is reacting to the past price and volume action in a systematic way that provides the statistical edge you need to win. Skew, kurtosis, and large loss prevention will forever be your friends, if you choose to listen.

 

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