Last Post 01/31/2013 11:56 PM by bumhong (5) . 5 reply.

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01/09/2013 06:15 AM

by rdeitem (65) Joined on 02/17/2012 Posts: 4

CVLT has been dancin in, under, in, and now back under the pivot area.

January 7 Craig-Hallum downdgrades to hold.  January 9 Goldman Sachs cuts to neutral from buy.

Earnings are due out January 30.  Is CVLT toast or is this the game that's played prior to earnings?

Any insight would be appreciated!

01/09/2013 10:07 AM

by se_swadley (795) Joined on 06/12/2010 Posts: 131


I own this stock and have noticed the recent choppy action too. The brokerages try to run up the price before their downgrades and then take short positions just before the release of the news. The stock sells off ,they cover and the often the stocks gets support -buying- as this one has. Whether the support holds through eps announcement or whether the brokerages are prophetic is anyones guess.

 I f you see sudden choppy action, some news is about to come out. Usually the trading around the new events subides in a few days. Look for continued support to hold or add, if you see further price weakness on increased volume get ready to sell or hedge. The downgrades may be just a conclusion that price has reached the analyst's recent target. The EPS announcement could give information that  influences a new target, up or down. IBD suggests unless you have a profit do not hold through the  eps announcement.

Some of the institutions seem to be repositioning their portfolio weighting in this stock. It had good accumulation before the first of the year. Are you more cautious or opportunistic? If you are by nature willing to take more risk, look for the signal to buy a little more soon. I f you are risk averse take profits or step aside to see if a new base forms. Scott O,Neil is very cautious right now, Analysts by and large are very cautious on eps expectations. Expect surprises to the upside.

Steve Swadley





01/09/2013 12:52 PM

by rjcastorena (85) Joined on 02/11/2012 Posts: 21

I agree with Steve Swadley's comments.  Additionally, as any week progresses, MS webinars have advised not to draw conclusions until the week is coming to a close AND THE WEEK'S CLOSE gives you another conclusion.  On a shorter term (Daily Chart), over the last 3 days, you can see that the stock broke through 10 dma and 21 dma down to the 50 dma over a 2 day period, then has quickly regained support today back to the 10 dma (just before mkt close as I am writing this) - - to me that demonstrates institutional support, which is a positive sign.  BUT, if you were to follow IBD sell rules to the purist form, your 7-8% sell rule would have kicked in already... plain and simple ... these brokerages will "shake that tree" ... it's been to me before ... I use to use a lot of sell stops but because that has happened to me a lot, I NERVOUSLY wait a little more until the business/trading week plays out to help me draw my own conclusions.

I am in this stock currently.

I believe Scott when he says he is cautious - - his last webinar I think he said he was bringing his "sell to cut losses" in to 5% in this current market BECAUSE of the choppiness.

So then ultimately what matters is your own conviction in CVLT and how YOU use your own sentiment ...

BUT REMEMBER ... IBD/Marketsmith school says to interpret what you see - - not wish what you see - - like I tell a friend, NO PET STOCKS!

Bobby C.

01/09/2013 03:28 PM

by rdeitem (65) Joined on 02/17/2012 Posts: 4

Thanks!  Very good replies!  Thanks for your timely responses!

This morning price action shook me out.  Since Jan 7 I had bought incremental postions at 71.1, 69, 67.6.  Today  premarket the tic was down and my avg loss was about 5%.  After years of not following loss limits I've pledged to unload any time I'm 3-5 percent down, plain and simple.  I sold all at 66.1 and as soon as I did, the tic went back up!  She touched the 50 day and bounced!  Review on my journal, breakout vol was 1.1M or 116% above avg, excellent, industry group rank 60, maybe the 60 created the chops.  ROE=23, that was good.  RS 95, not like a 99....... after breakout the RS took a dive.  Stage 1b (2) appeared good for count. Jan 4 avg vol was 73% above and Jan 8 87% above both days red.

No regrets!  I maintained my sell rule.  Hmmm, back to my "ready to go" list!

CHEERS!  Cool 

01/10/2013 01:42 PM

by jhr36 (75) Joined on 08/23/2010 Posts: 9

CVLT has a monthly chart that is a thing of beauty.  I am concerned about the market in general and have a 3% stop on CVLT now.

01/31/2013 11:56 PM

by bumhong (5) Joined on 05/31/2010 Posts: 1

Has CVLT flashed a sell signal by touching its upper-channel line after its earnings release on Wednesday? Pattern recognition had/has its ascending base as a 2nd-stage base which suggests it's too early for climatic activity but it's had a long run and there might be a upper channel line going back to 8/12. Thanks in advance.