MARKET IN UPTREND (3-5-13)

Please use this forum page to post stocks you think are ready to BUY (approaching buy zone). Only POST before the breakout or stocks still in the Buy Zone (lets call it 5%).

Include:

1 - Stock Symbol

2 - Buy point (if you want).

THIS IS A "JOG THE MEMORY" LIST ONLY so Keep it short.  No further stock explanations needed (Use scrutinizing the leader list for further analysis and comment)

THANK YOU!

~THE CRYSTAL BALL

Disclaimer:

 These are not buy recommendations: Buyers will be responsible for verifying their purchases using IBD system. 

LOPE - Still hanging around 25 buy point

KORS

Mr. Ball,

Great idea!!  Today I am:

Waiting for XONE to set up an IPO base.

Waiting on SPLK

Watching V for a second buy off of the 50 day MA (Trailing a buy stop at the prior day's high until the second low close below the 50)

I really like REGN, but not quite ready to add to buy list yet.

NSM and OCN rules say I have to buy more shares than the last time.

Maybe ALXN on a first stage.

Keep trying to buy YNDX, but it won't cooperate

QCOR on a first stage

I guess that's enough for a first effort.

x

I will jump in on this.  

CTRX 

LL (just past)

BLK, KSU (just out of 3 wks tight patterns).

Interested in feedback.  

see SCRUTINIZING THE LEADERS TO WATCH NOW LIST

seeSCRUTINIZING THE LEADERS TO WATCH NOW LIST

V  A Big cap slow mover.  Stock has held the 50 day line for about 9 months.  Pulled down to the 50 day line today. Would be a buy if it bounced off the 50day.  Not optimal though.  Down volume of late has been greater than up volume!  Don

DHI - pulling back into buy zone after 299% volume breakout.  Since breakout most up days on plus volume and down days on low volume.  

MX buy point $16.90

FIVE buy point 40.15

I'm long BGS off the double bottom. Also a cup with handle breakout today. Caution...they report after the close. Hate to see the runup today, kind of makes it more risky holding through earnings. 

DHI - Thanks Morika! Great post. I picked up a small position today - THANKS!

~THE CRYSTAL BALL

YNDX - In buy range.  Cleared resistance @ 25.00 and 25.25.  Ready to take off.

OCN - In buy range. Finding support @ 41.00.

AL - trying to put in a handle

URBN- nice vol rally off 50 dma and back in buy zone.

See "SCRUTINIZING THE LEADERS TO WATCH NOW LIST" for updates on your stocks. Feel free to jump in on the critiques.

~THE CRYSTAL BALL

TBBK - pivot point $12.73

Scott,

Great idea & hope this continues to be posted. Here are a couple:

CLGX, CHUY both approaching pivot

• MX - See Scrutinizing the leaders list

~THE CRYSTAL BALL needs a little help on this one.

Thoughts on DORM? Earnings release in 2 days, so that will tell us more... don't want to take out a position before then...

Though I already took a position in TBBK, I was curious folks thoughts (never too late to sell given new insight and buy something BETTER!)...

Also, thoughts on VSI?

I think INVN (Invensense) is one to add to the list.  Written up in New America section on 2-15-2013.  Seems to meet CANSLIM (one weak qtr of EPS recently though), ROE at 31% with no debt, MF ownership interest increasing.  They make motion sensors for handheld devices--from the Nintendo Wii to cell phones.  Interested in  any thoughts.  Marketsmith has pivot at 14.25 plus .10 would be $14.35.  Recent 3 weeks tight pattern also.

LOPE - Tempted to add before earnings but am not (still within buy range) - See other list.

~THE CRYSTAL BALL

I will submit two additional canidates for review:  ALKS and WETF

CELG - CAUTION - extended from last base  - See other list.

~THE CRYSTAL BALL

AL - This was at to the LEADERBOARD stocks ((If you don't subscribe to LEADERBOARD it is recommended)

~THE CRYSTAL BALL

x

I am not sure today was bad enough for IBD to go straight to market in correction--I tend to think they will go to uptrend under pressure.  If Thursday brings another distribution day, that would probably push to mkt in correction. Either way, new buys off the table for now and selling to lock in profits where appropriate.

I am a newbie and wished I had read you earlier. Keep up the comments as it help. Thanks T

Heavy selling again today.  If this continues, another day of distribution.  Will push count to 7 on NYSE and 4 on S&P and Nas.  Those are high counts, and coupled with two days of heavily selling, will almost certainly push IBD to "Market in Correction" tonight.  Time to be disciplined if we go to correction--moving mostly to cash now--selling some winners (CELG, XXIA, VRX) with close to 20% gains, selling recent purchases with slight losses--ALKS, WETF, YNDX. 

Sorry--was going to cut and paste from Leaderboard, can't get to work and can't delete the post either

On the day I posted the CAUTION I sold KORS, CELG and others. I held VRX. VRX action looked good today. Nice bounce off the 50-day, closed in upper range of day. I have a small position, with a small profit (so not too much on the line). Got killed in CELG, bought on 20th am (on breakout), sold the same day (the failure). Ouch.

Hang tight. I think the IBD people think this rally has steam, as they did not put the market in correction today.

~THE CRYSTAL BALL

What do you think CRYSTAL?

~~~~~~Who the Heck Knows~~~~~~ CRYSTAL isn't being much help right now! :)

Well, I was wrong on my thought that 7 dist days on NYSE and 4 on Nas/SP would "certainly" push into "market in correction" mode.  The end of day strength yesterday apparently prevailed.  Rather than trying to predict, guess I need to just wait and see which way things tip today and over next couple of days.  Will today be up day on volume and confirm uptrend, or a morning bounce with a downtrend later in day?.  Who knows.  Either way, it seems that historically the "uptrend under pressure" is a short lived status--seems to only be a couple of days on average before a clear market direction is evident (but it has also stayed under pressure for 7 to 9 trading days also).  O'Neil says to just the follow the market--now just need to figure out which way it is going?  GLTA 

BIG UPDATE - CRYSTAL has been busy since yesterday afternoon

~~~~~~Sell the shorts, go long~~~~~~

I don't know how to take this?
-old leaders were up big yesterday
-market remains stubborn (IBD won't make it a correction - this is a big hint)
-It's too early to short

Same buy and sell rules apply - Avoid damaged stocks like KORS, which fell on big  volume.

BOUGHT AL, LOPE, VRX this AM

~THE CRYSTAL BALL

After reading Amy Smith's recent book, and continuing to review IBD webinars, articles, etc, I am trying to continually be strictly disciplined and ask myself: " Does this trade (or potential trade) comply with all the IBD Canslim rules?"  As the current market status is "uptrend under pressure", new buys of long positions should be off the table per IBD.  So, I sit on my hands and wait--no new long posiitons being opened--and actually closed a bunch yesterday. 

 I do note the market is up today, but off from the opening jump and, more importantly, down a good bit on the volume front.

gmorton - this is the correct path IMO.

I've been doing this for a bit of time now and I had the benefit of some very good mentors. A few things in my own trading that I have noticed that pertain to your post is

1. if you don't go all to cash (all means 100%) at the 1st signs of selling pressure and keep your strongest positions with the most cushion (and the highest conviction in the quality of the issue), you don't feel the need to chase the tape at the first relief bounce and get, "caught in the switches," as Victor Niedoerhoffer famously put it. 
2. Managing risk by reducing exposure when the market moves away from its primary trend is key to long term performance. Selling down and sitting on your hands is a great strategy until the next leg reveals itself. You keep your mental and financial fire powder at the ready so you have the courage to pull the trigger when the market shows its real intent. If you play every move you will get churned  and be worn down when you need to be keyed up.
3. Traders who go from long to short to long and play with highly levered ETF's (that they don't fully understand) usually don't last very long. They blow themselves up in the churn by mistaking quantity of trading for quality trades.

If the rally is for real and you understand what time frames you trade and stay disciplined you'll make money.

Good luck.

Cleaning up blog for list (sorry cannot delete)

AL, LOPE, VRX - See other list for description in a little

AL and LOPE - continue to move higher since AM posting. Still in buy range.

Monday update - Le'ts hope for an end of day Rally (the high volume would put additional pressure on the market if it closes down).

CVRR- b/p 32.35 from IPO base.

AWAY - Buy Point B/P = $27.52

~THE CRYSTAL BALL

AVG - B/P 16.39 - big comeback in huge vol. (has not broken out yet)

Ouch! One would presume IBD will call a CORRECTION but we'll have to see.

~THE CRYSTAL BALL

Mr "I" 4910 plus other experienced investors - Can you give us a hand? I'm sure my question is being considered by other members too: Now may be a good time to cover this subject:

Assuming we go into correction tonight (call by IBD)

How do most of you handle a correction?. For example if I can show my cards for a moment. I have VRX, AL, LOPE are my main positions. AL was down a nickel today. No major crashes in volume so far.

Do you sell your long positions no matter what, and go into cash?

Do you sell only the stocks that act poorly, such as a break through the 50-day on volume?

Do you sell on high volume declines (like I did last week on KORs)?

It's weird because my particular stocks held up okay today (this is why I like first stage bases so much), so I am inclined to try and hold them until something negative happens. Obviously the risk is waiting for them to head down to the 50-day, which in my case would cause a lot of damage to the portfolio.

I have rarely done well at this stage of the market. In the past, I know in at least two situations they played out as follows:

1 - Sold all - Only to have everything rally hard and leave me empty handed

2 - I have held - And yes, Murphy's law kicked in and I was crushed by declines so severe there was no getting out in time.

Is anyone with me on this?. I am pretty sure this is how I got ousted out of NFLX at around $30 share in 09. I think the market got ugly etc. and there went my winner.

~THE CRYSTAL BALL - Here is the question I could use some guidance on:

• a - SELL no matter what, go all into cash
• b - stock are acting okay, HOLD them (WAIT for the crash through the 50-day)
• c - any other suggestions/options

I feel a very good grasp on market strategy most of the time, but now I do not, could use a little help.

~THE CRYSTAL BALL

PS - Obviously all new buys are out. (assuming market correction call by IBD tonight)

I'd like to add one more thing.

We are in the third stage of a 4 or 5 year bull market. This would be a much easier question to answer if we were in the FIRST year of a bull market.

~THE CRYSTAL BALL

I wish I had some old man atop a high hill type wisdom for you, but the simple truth is you have to have your own rules for how you treat a pullback or possible correction. I can't answer these questions for you because what works for me won't work for you; it just can't.But I'll answer anyway because the markets not to my liking and I am thinking about this anyway.

For me, I don't rely on IBD's calls anymore. I highly respect Chris G and his team, but they have made calls that I just can't savvy. I keep my own daily logs and trade accordingly.

 Generally I am a pussy. I am not waiting around to get clobbered. Sorry, but I would rather miss a move than get trapped. As Gordon Gekko said, "I don't like losses, sport." So as soon as something happens that changes the character of the trend, I am starting to cut my position size. No excuses. I don't sit through 8% losses b/c those can get away from you and turn into 10%+ losses very easily.  In fact I use David Ryans rule for selling half a position if it turtles back into a base, so I have no issues backing out as soon as I am getting in...

My guiding light is capital preservation at all times. Everything trickles down from that simple thought. With that in mind my rules have 2 general bifurcation  - am I up for the year or down for the year and is it early in the year or late?

If I'm down for the year, and distribution gets over 3 days and my P&L hasn't made a new high in 5 days, I cut by P&L. Anything in the red or profit is < 2% is sold first and then stops raised on all winners. I just can't afford to hold losers if I am losing. No excuses.

If I am up for the year and if distribution days are > 5 and my P&L hasn't made a new high in 5 trading days I start to raise stops and generally will toss back all undersized fish. I know which stocks are simple trades (looking for a MM off of a inv H&S for example) and which ones I think have the potential to be the next AAPL (I should only be so lucky). The trades get cut first. The monsters are cut by the amount of cushion they have once things start getting ugly. EPS growth means nothing during a selling stampede.

I also try to never let a winner turn into a loser. Its a pox on my family to let black turn into red.

If its early in the year I tend to be more forgiving and if its late I tend to raise my standards.

As far as "my stocks are holding up," I can only tell you from my experience that like the Germans in WW2 the market eventually comes for everyone if there is a real sell off. Just because stock ABC is good today, doesn't mean tomorrow they will start selling them off. Its a false sense of security and sometimes its better to sell when the goings good...

Too simplify I think O'Neil said it best, "...just watch your stocks." Its such simple and pure and perfect advise that as a human I have wrecked by trying to improve on it.

My sell rules have been revised 6 times and took many, many months to prepare. It would be unrealistic to go too far into them here. but I have attempted to think out and think through all the possible scenarios and game the best move for me in each. I recommend you do this during your down time.

As an aside the sad part of looking for knowledge is, and I'll steal a quote from George Bernard Shaw, is the, "...whole problem with the world is that fools and fanatics are so sure of themselves, and wiser people are full of doubts." Never more true than in the markets...Twitter = death.

Apologies if I was a bit frenetic and leap-froggy in my response, but its the Internet.

Thank you "I"!! I will study this in detail, great information!

~THE CRYSTAL BALL

ULTA - Has broken mulit-month support (extended somewhat?)

EVER - PASS

THANKS "I". Why do I always have to lose money before I learn? I got it now!. I have placed you notes at the top of my Journal!!

~THE CRYSTAL BALL

SSNC - 27.04 Pivot - Worth a look

~THE CRYSTAL BALL

EVER - Back to buy zone, look at upside vol this week.

MTH-44.95

CVLT-79.63

See my review in other list

~THE MAN WITH THE CRYSTAL BALL

NSM - Just dipped back into buy zone - 37.20 (If use original base).

MTH - Nice low volume decline to 10-day (market has seemed to stabilize more since the breakout of the stock)

Hi Cbackes what rule dictates you need to buy more shares than last time?   *Disclaimer*  I'm just starting out.