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This is the comment area for the STOCKS TO WATCH LIST
Here is where you can help members with a quick analysis of stocks posted, good or bad.
PS - Members, if we slam you stock, don't take it personally! Please! We appreciate the post and will hopefully help you out in the process pointing out the pros and the cons! (think of this section like Cramers' Mad Money, but with FACTS!)
~THE CRYSTAL BALL
what are you seeing about LOPE that you like so much? I'm not liking the way it cant get through (and stay above) it's pivot...
LOPE - I took a small position. I don't love the stock, but I like it. I am not in bed with it (if it acts up, it's sold).
Do not like:
I put this one by CRYSTAL and here is what she said:
~~~~~~DEVRY STUPID!~~~~~~ (sometimes she is a smart ass) :)
-THE CRYSTAL BALL
Good luck and thanks for the tips, especially putting LL front and center again.
PS - Remember I won't necessarily post when the CRYSTALL BALL SELLS. Review all your selling rules.
I like all these! THANK YOU for posting!
I really like how we can come to ONE SPOT and get all the member CURRENT BEST PICKS. It's a great memory jogger and also brings new ideas!.
Maybe Marketsmith, could eventuallhy add a function where members could enter the stock in a list with a breif explanation (short, like twitter). For now this will work.
Also remind me later when the market corrects, we should do the same in reverse for SELLING! We can set up a forem called STOCKS I AM SELLING TODAY, STOCKS I AM SHORTING TODAY.
Thanks again and good luck with the trades,
DHI - Thanks Morika! I picked up a position in this today!! I appreciate it.
what does the ball think about MDC?
MDC - Neutral (as with most builders)
THE CRYSTAL BALL picked up a small position in DHI today (see BLOG "Should be we be shorting". I preferred the KORS and LNKD trades as they beat on all (most metrics) at the time of breakout.
Here is what CRYSTAL SAID:
~~~~~~Warning, what the heck happened on the week of Feb 2 ?~~~~~~
That week is a deal killer for a CRYSTAL BALL stock.
~~~~~~I don't like the Ugly Duckling Sister either, ASPS~~~~~~
THE CRYSTAL BALL
Thanks very much for posting these though!!
~~THE CRYSTAL BALL
John thanks for the stocks! Here is the CRYSTAL BALLs down and dirty assessment!
ALXN looks perfect technically to short on every aspect.
Cons for me 'No Real Bad News' exists and Q1 2013 guidance given was above analyst consensus. That kinda leaves it open for the stock at anytime deciding a bottom reversal back upward. The stock sold off hard on volume Friday 02-15-13 after 02-14-13 Q4 earnings still leave me sort of indecisive shorting while ignoring facts mentioned regarding positive guidance. On sole technical basis 'the stock is in a clear downtrend' The market has spoken after Q4 earnings so leaving the market as the final arbiter.
Great analysis! Also I have been tracking U/D, Acc/Dis, RS, all have been dropping precipitously. I was short the stock and I sold on the earnings day! Darn! I mis-understood the earnings report and I thought earnings were accelerating (quarterly), but they are NOT. Plus I hate going against the grain of the market. This is a tough time because I think a lot of us think there is going to be a correction in some of these stocks but we are in an uptrend and technically should not buy them.
I am glad you tossed a short in here. Once the market goes into a correction, I'll start a SHORT list and we can back burner this list for the duration of the correction.
MX: Buy or don't buy?
Crystal is getting a little emotional lately, she thinks the market is going to correct and everything we own is going to tank with it!
Want to make sure no purchase mistakes are made.
2011 earnings slipped from 2010, A BIG RED MARK on the stock. Also having tough time overcoming annual EPS of only 12. Obviously nice acceleration(this would be an acceleration story). I prefer steady annual growth stories but I know these can work.
I would be interested if there are reasons for buying this one to overcome the check marks?
MX analysis for those searching vision through a crystal ball . This is not investment advice and any information provided shall not be taken as such.
The Undeniably Good
The Potential Not So Good and The Winds Still In Your Face **important**
Thank you! I think I am struggling with exactly your point of the general market. This is a time when we all need to step back and just make sure we follow all the IBD rules by the book. This would be a bad time to cheat, i.e. buy before the breakout. Obviously, via the Big Picture on Friday, IBD is not worried about the market. I WANT TO AGREE, it's just that old nagging, tugging CRYSTAL BALL saying.
~~~~~~WALL STREET LOVES TO DISAPPOINT~~~~~~
Jessie Livermore said it perfectly when he made a killing shorting. "Well, people were starting to talk bullish again" :) I love this quote and it sums it up pretty well. But with that said, we are past the line of least resistance in an upward market right now. We must play the bullish hand.
One concept we can take home is this: If MX breaks out in volume, that probably signals this uptrend is solid. Theoretically the stock will not break out if the market is week This goes for other leaders as well.
May just be overthinking things/worrying over nothing, but I already got burned this earnings season with GNRC.
I'm fairly new to the O'Neil method of investing and was curious if anyone is concerned with the price action of LL heading into the earnings release this week. Last Friday's high volume reversal in the afternoon and the weakness this morning has me worried I'm missing something (e.g. earnings leak pointing towards disappointment). Does anyone else see danger ahead? Is this sort of movement normal heading into earnings for a stock like LL?
Prior to the last couple months I was a "buy and hold" investor, so I haven't paid too much attention to earnings in regards to price movements prior to earnings release (i.e. I read and considered the numbers after they were released, but never cared day to day what happened in to the stock price, as I held for years not weeks/months).
Am I just overthinking/worring about nothing, or am I getting ready to see another single day 8% drop from disappointing earnings/outlook?
Time to get out of YNDX? CAN SLIM says yes.
If your game plan is CAN SLIM investing, then yes, follow your game plan and get out! There are other fish in the sea. Lick your wound and jump on the horse again with another pick (I say this having just gone through the same thing with GNRC; good numbers but disappointing outlook).
You want to stick to a plan and follow it, and the CAN SLIM method is a good plan... if that's the plan you used to pick this stock, then time to sell. Sorry for your loss.
Also, I never liked YNDX here due to the sloppy base, large vol. down day on Dec. 14th, and the poor RS, so I may be overly negitive here with YNDX with/without the disappointing day. My two cents...
Disclaimer: I'm fairly new to the CAN SLIM method and certainly have much to learn with investing in every aspect; I'm certainly no "expert" and I only wish I had a crystal ball! Also, after my sell GNRC has made a nice comeback (though I saw suppot at the 50 day MA where YNDX fell right through it!).
Current holdings are PIR, LL, KORS, DHI, and TBBK if you want to pick apart any of those (though they are a bit past where I bought most of them/their pivot point, they were all bought within the last 20 days).
Like I mentioned earlier, LL has me nervous with the last couple days behavior ahead of earnings; am I just being parinoid, or is Friday afternoon and this morning a bad sign ahead of the release...
LL - Watch is close. If it bounces off the 10-day and can close in high range for the day (that could at least offer some temporary relief allowing an easier hold).
CRYSTAL has certain skills, but it not a great stock chart technician in the true sense.
If sales and earnings decelerate again this this quarter (that would make three quarters in a row of decelerations), that would be enough for CRYSTAL to dump it and move to something safer.
Good luck with the trade,
LOPE - Thought about adding before earnings report. Still within 25 buy range. Just not enough improvement in RS and other metrics prior to earnings. 75% confident in nice earnings bump (not high enough to plunge).
Interested to get folks thoughts on KORS's secondary offering anounced this evening... seems like other offerings have put KORS into a period of consolidation (what looks to me like consolidation until the next earnings release blew numbers out of the water and institutions "got over it").
As a shareholder, I'm going to hold my shares (for now) and just see where things go, but was just curious what others thought...
Do any Members know how to handle this situation? If a company continually dilutes (aka SCREWS) existing holders, can a stock remain a leader or is it best to sell? I asked CRYSTAL about this and her response was a natural one....
~~~~~~~I FEEL USED!~~~~~
The stock is still only up less than 10% from the breakout. Let's assume the stock starts another new base (as it has in the past), with a 20% correction and a 3-4 month duration, is it worth sticking around? The 20% correction would leave people who bought the breakout with a 10% loss.
Ok...Here is the deal. First of all the shares are not diluted here. This is a secondary offering of existing shareholder's shares. Primarily Michael Kors himself (3M shares) and Sportswear Holdings (20M shares). I know previously SOs led to base building. But actually the bases coincided with market corrections. So yes, this may be the same ol story (another base building), but it also may not since this market is showing no signs of weakness. Key here is to not freak out and dump your shares first thing in the morning. That's the amateur way. Sell your shares as usual; if your stop gets hit. Good luck!
Everything I explained was within realm of IBD rules. If you do not know the basic terminology of the general market you need to read How To Make Money In Stocks.
~~~~~~C~E~L~G~~~~~~Something BIG is happening here, take the leap of faith~~~~~~
****UPDATE on POSTING - CHANGE MADE*****
AL - Pass - Added to Leader's, broke out of saucer base. Even though sales decelerated, they are still strong, which trumps the deceleration. Earnings did not decelerate.
AL - still within 5% of buy point. Broke out of a beautiful, long saucer during the recent crash! (show of force)
LOPE- still within 5% of point point. U/D, Acc/Dis, RS all improving (even during recent crash). Use some caution on the pullback. Do your own study.
Both of these are FIRST STAGE. If you prefer some nice growth, without all the drama of a DDD like stock, I suggest first stage bases. I rarely even buy a second stage, never a third or higher. Always look at a monthly chart before purchase.
VRX, nice bounce of the 50-day. Extended from the original buy point (a little), so adding here off the 50-day bounce. Only the first bounce off the 50-day - (safer than 3rd or 4th bounces)
Good luck and be careful right now.
Dont' panic! If your following THE CRYSTAL BALL style of trade (slightly more conservative) AL, VRX, AVG are all up (sign of strength). LOPE down a fraction. I don't see anything alarming yet.this AM with the sudden market drop. Don't let the DDD's of the world throw you off, these stocks were all late state bases anyway (hopefully you have followd CRYSTAL's advice and stayed away from these "drama" type stocks.
AWAY - As the market is selling off this AM, AWAY stock price has risen (sign of strength). I am expecting AWAY to close UP on the day with large volume.
PS- This is a little bit of a high flyer so take a smaller position if you jump in this one (don't go crazy).
EVER - PASS!
Another member told me about this stock today. Only big negative I see is ROI only 12%. Nice 2nd stage base.
Update 3-6-13 - Rare higher volume follow through. I bought and "added" on the same day.
CVLT - Neutral - I can't explain what's held me from buying this. I guess it is a rule the CRYSTAL BALL uses occasionlly. The stock has had a 10 FOLD run from the bottom. Now I know they count bases and this one is only a 1 (c), but a 10-FOLD advance and it's called a stage one still?....Ahhhh do know. I like EVER better. Compare the monthly charts and you will see what I mean.
Also 20% annual growth? That's okay, but not great, year over year sales growth flat. I don't like the estimates either. CVLT will probably go higher, it just does not fit my risk profile right now. Fundamentals & technicals are mostly spotless.
MTH - PASS - I don't like the ROI 6%. Nice forward earnings est. Current cup is short, I'd prefer to see lighter volume on the left side of the cup. U/D solid 1.7.
Alex, if you read this send me an email firstname.lastname@example.org. I am looking for another experienced IBD investor (there is a small group of us), to share ideas - especailly during corrections and advice when to sell/buy etc. I can send you the spreadsheet we started. Thanks!
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